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Consumer spending grows 0.8% in Q4 across the EU. However the pace of growth was the weakest recorded in 2010

  • Q4 was the fifth successive quarter of spending growth
  • Eastern Europe records strong growth while growth in Greece and Ireland continued to decline

22nd February 2011 – The Visa Europe: EU Consumer Spending Barometer indicates that consumer spending grew 0.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2010. However the pace of growth slowed from 1.2% in Q3, reflecting the muted economic recovery across the EU.

This represents the fifth straight quarter of growth amongst EU member states, though the barometer indicates that the rate of growth has slowed since the peak recorded in Q1 2010 when it was 2.5%.

The EU Consumer Spending Barometer is based on actual spend rather than sentiment or opinion, and this data is then adjusted to allow for Visa card issuance, consumer payment preferences and inflation. The Barometer is a reliable economic indicator as it provides the most precise and comprehensive insight into the health of consumer spending in the EU.  Unlike other indices or surveys that are based on sentiment or opinion in particular sectors, this Barometer provides an accurate reflection of real consumer spending across the EU based on consumer’s increasing preference for card payments, with €1 in every €8 spent in Europe on a Visa card.

Across the EU spending levels varied significantly from country to country according to the Barometer. It indicates that Eastern European countries, including Poland, Latvia and Estonia, recorded strong consumer spending growth, while Ireland and Greece recorded strong falls in overall spending.

Amongst the larger EU countries, the Barometer indicates that spend in Germany and Italy fell mildly but rates of contraction moderated over the quarter. In the UK and France consumer spending continued to increase, though the rate of growth slowed against Q3. The reduction in growth was in part a result of the adverse weather conditions experienced in Q4, a situation that affected many Northern European nations. The Barometer shows that the situation recorded in Spain was similar with a rise in expenditure albeit at a slower rate than in Q3.

In Q4, unadjusted spending on Visa cards totalled €253bn up 17.2% on the same period in 2009. Average transaction values fell for the second quarter in a row to €50.1 down from €50.8 in Q3.

Philip Symes, Chief Financial Officer at Visa Europe said:

“Consumers within the EU have faced rising inflation, government cutbacks, weak economic growth and in many cases difficult weather conditions in the last quarter of 2010. It is therefore encouraging to see that the EU Consumer Spending Barometer indicates that consumer expenditure continues to grow.

“In the face of all these difficulties it is perhaps unsurprising that the rate of spending growth has slowed. While the consumer makes up an important part of the EU economy, this trend of slower growth is however likely to be reflected in GDP figures for the first part of 2011.”

Andrew Self, Economist at Markit, said:

“EU consumers rounded off 2010 by posting the weakest growth in spending of the year. That said, growth has now been recorded for five straight quarters, and to see any rise in spending despite considerable uncertainties surrounding inflation, government austerity plans and the ongoing Eurozone debt crisis is positive.

“Mirroring the trend recorded in the wider economic recovery, the upturn in consumer spend that the EU Consumer Spending Report shows has been uneven. Strong growth in Eastern Europe, as well as solid expansions in the UK and France, have contrasted with ongoing contractions in Ireland and Greece. There are, however, signs that consumers in the Eurozone ‘peripheral’ nations are turning a corner. Greece and Ireland both recorded slowdowns in rates of contraction, while Italian consumers cut back only modestly over the year. Spanish spending meanwhile posted a further increase.”

About the Visa Europe’s EU Consumer Spending Barometer

Over one in every eight euros spent in the EU is on a Visa card, with more than 70% of that spending on debit cards. This means the Report provides a uniquely comprehensive and timely insight into the health of consumer spending in the European Union.

Visa Europe’s EU Consumer Spending Barometer is based on spending on all cards issued by Visa – debit, credit and prepaid. Markit has developed the Barometer by creating a model which adjusts the raw Visa transaction data for a number of factors.

First, the data are deflated by changes in the number of Visa cards issued to account for the expansion of Visa’s business. Secondly, an adjustment is made to offset changing consumer preference for card usage. This is based on an assessment of the trends in cash withdrawals and point-of-sale (POS) transactions on Visa cards. Finally, to account for inflation, the data are deflated by changes in the consumer price index to provide an indicator of real changes in household expenditure.

The Visa data have enjoyed a strong positive relationship with equivalent official numbers in recent years. The Visa data cover a much wider range of sectors than just retail as cards are increasingly used for payments such as utility and tax bills.

You can now read the full Visa Europe: EU Consumer Spending Barometer.

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About Visa Europe

In Europe, there are more than 419 million Visa debit, credit and commercial cards. In the 12 months ending September 2010 those cards were used to make purchases and cash withdrawals to the value of €1.5 trillion. 12.5% of consumer spending at point of sale in Europe is with a Visa card, and more than 70% of that is on Visa debit cards.  

Visa Europe is owned and operated by more than 4,000 European member banks and was incorporated in July 2004. In October 2007, Visa Europe became independent of the new global Visa Inc., with an exclusive, irrevocable and perpetual licence in Europe. As a dedicated European payment system it is able to respond quickly to the specific market needs of European banks and their customers - cardholders and retailers - and to meet the European Commission’s objective to create a true internal market for payments.

Visa enjoys unsurpassed acceptance around the world. In addition, Visa/PLUS is one of the world’s largest global ATM networks, offering cash access in local currency in over 200 countries.

For more information, visit http://www.visaeurope.com/